A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.

A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.

The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The f...

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Main Authors: Kosmas Kosmidis, Panos Macheras
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2020-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304
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spelling doaj-2623fda5f4814de4bd9d4ffe5b0039652021-03-04T11:54:13ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-01158e023730410.1371/journal.pone.0237304A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.Kosmas KosmidisPanos MacherasThe COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the "fractal" exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Kosmas Kosmidis
Panos Macheras
spellingShingle Kosmas Kosmidis
Panos Macheras
A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Kosmas Kosmidis
Panos Macheras
author_sort Kosmas Kosmidis
title A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
title_short A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
title_full A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
title_fullStr A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
title_full_unstemmed A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
title_sort fractal kinetics si model can explain the dynamics of covid-19 epidemics.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2020-01-01
description The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the "fractal" exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions.
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304
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AT panosmacheras afractalkineticssimodelcanexplainthedynamicsofcovid19epidemics
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AT panosmacheras fractalkineticssimodelcanexplainthedynamicsofcovid19epidemics
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