Data Analysis and Forecasting of Tuberculosis Prevalence Rates for Smart Healthcare Based on a Novel Combination Model

• Main Authors: Jiyang Wang, Chen Wang, Wenyu Zhang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2018-09-01
• Series: Applied Sciences
• Subjects: tuberculosis prevalence rate; World Bank income group; combination forecasting; nonparametric analysis of variance; cuckoo search algorithm
• Online Access: http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/9/1693

In recent years, healthcare has attracted much attention, which is looking for more and more data analytics in healthcare to relieve medical problems in medical staff shortage, ageing population, people living alone, and quality of life. Data mining, analysis, and forecasting play a vital role in modern social and medical fields. However, how to select a proper model to mine and analyze the relevant medical information in the data is not only an extremely challenging problem, but also a concerning problem. Tuberculosis remains a major global health problem despite recent and continued progress in prevention and treatment. There is no doubt that the effective analysis and accurate forecasting of global tuberculosis prevalence rates lay a solid foundation for the construction of an epidemic disease warning and monitoring system from a global perspective. In this paper, the tuberculosis prevalence rate time series for four World Bank income groups are targeted. Kruskal–Wallis analysis of variance and multiple comparison tests are conducted to determine whether the differences of tuberculosis prevalence rates for different income groups are statistically significant or not, and a novel combined forecasting model with its weights optimized by a recently developed artificial intelligence algorithm—cuckoo search—is proposed to forecast the hierarchical tuberculosis prevalence rates from 2013 to 2016. Numerical results show that the developed combination model is not only simple, but is also able to satisfactorily approximate the actual tuberculosis prevalence rate, and can be an effective tool in mining and analyzing big data in the medical field.