Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

• Main Authors: F.B. Agusto, S. Bewick, W.F. Fagan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2017-05-01
• Series: Infectious Disease Modelling
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042716300483

Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals. The Zika model is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Our model shows that asymptomatic individuals amplify the disease burden in the community, and the most important parameters for ZIKV spread are the death rate of mosquitoes, the mosquito biting rate, the mosquito recruitment rate, and the transmission per contact to mosquitoes and to adult humans. Scenario exploration indicates that personal-protection is a more effective control strategy than mosquito-reduction strategy. It also shows that delaying conception reduces the number of microcephaly cases, although this does little to prevent Zika transmission in the broader community. However, by coupling aggressive vector control and personal protection use, it is possible to reduce both microcephaly and Zika transmission. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 92B05, 93A30, 93C15. Keywords: Zika virus, Vertical transmission, Microcephaly, Stability, Control