Intuition speed as a predictor of choice and confidence in point spread predictions

• Main Authors: Alexander C. Walker, Martin Harry Turpin, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2019-03-01
• Series: Judgment and Decision Making
• Subjects: dual-process; intuition confidence; intuition speed; sports gamblingNAKeywords
• Online Access: http://journal.sjdm.org/18/18316/jdm18316.pdf

Previous research has revealed that intuitive confidence is an important predictor of how people choose between an intuitive and non-intuitive alternative when faced with information that opposes the intuitive response. In the current study, we investigated the speed of intuition generation as a predictor of intuitive confidence and participant choice in choice conflict situations. Participants predicted the outcomes of several National Basketball Association games, both with and without reference to a point spread. As hypothesized, the faster participants were to predict the outright winner of a game (i.e., generate an intuition) the more likely they were to predict the favourite against the point spread for that game (i.e., endorse the intuitive response). Overall, our findings are consistent with the notion that the speed of intuition generation acts as a determinant of intuitive confidence and a predictor of choice in situations featuring equally valid intuitive and non-intuitive alternatives.