| Summary: | A survey of Blue-footed Boobies (Sula nebouxii excisa) throughout the taxon's range in Galápagos, Ecuador found ~6400 adults, compared to a rough estimate of 20,000 in the 1960s. Few pairs bred in 2011-2013 and almost no birds in juvenile plumage were seen. Long-term data suggest that poor breeding began in 1998. Lack of recruitment over this period would mean that the current population is mostly elderly and experiencing senescent decline in performance. Anthropogenic effects such as introduced predators are unlikely to explain this decline because islands with and without such factors exhibited the same low breeding. The poor reproduction seems to be linked to diet. Previous work indicated that sardine and herring (Clupeidae) supported successful breeding, but these fish were mostly absent from the diet during this study, except in the central part of Galápagos, where most breeding attempts during this study occurred. Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific sardine abundance has decreased dramatically by natural processes in the last 15 years, as part of a well-documented and apparently natural cycle. This cyclic change in abundance provides a possible explanation for the recent demographic changes in Blue-footed Boobies in Galápagos. Whether natural or anthropogenic in origin, the implications of senescent decline in breeding ability and survival are dramatic for this genetically distinct icon of biodiversity and ecotourism.
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