A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave
Forecasting models have been used extensively to inform decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this preregistered and prospective study, the authors evaluated 14 short-term models for Germany and Poland, finding considerable heterogeneity in predictions and highlighting the benefits of com...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Publishing Group
2021-08-01
|
| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0 |
| id |
doaj-24a309c146094b3e8b03c37e224aa56b |
|---|---|
| record_format |
Article |
| spelling |
doaj-24a309c146094b3e8b03c37e224aa56b2021-08-29T11:37:13ZengNature Publishing GroupNature Communications2041-17232021-08-0112111610.1038/s41467-021-25207-0A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second waveJ. Bracher0D. Wolffram1J. Deuschel2K. Görgen3J. L. Ketterer4A. Ullrich5S. Abbott6M. V. Barbarossa7D. Bertsimas8S. Bhatia9M. Bodych10N. I. Bosse11J. P. Burgard12L. Castro13G. Fairchild14J. Fuhrmann15S. Funk16K. Gogolewski17Q. Gu18S. Heyder19T. Hotz20Y. Kheifetz21H. Kirsten22T. Krueger23E. Krymova24M. L. Li25J. H. Meinke26I. J. Michaud27K. Niedzielewski28T. Ożański29F. Rakowski30M. Scholz31S. Soni32A. Srivastava33J. Zieliński34D. Zou35T. Gneiting36M. Schienle37List of Contributors by TeamChair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Robert Koch Institute (RKI)London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineFrankfurt Institute for Advanced StudiesSloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College LondonWroclaw University of Science and TechnologyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineEconomic and Social Statistics Department, University of TrierInformation Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National LaboratoryInformation Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National LaboratoryFrankfurt Institute for Advanced StudiesLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineInstitute of Informatics, University of WarsawDepartment of Computer Science, University of CaliforniaInstitute of Mathematics, Technische Universität IlmenauInstitute of Mathematics, Technische Universität IlmenauInstitute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of LeipzigInstitute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of LeipzigWroclaw University of Science and TechnologySwiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFLOperations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum JülichStatistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National LaboratoryInterdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of WarsawWroclaw University of Science and TechnologyInterdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of WarsawInstitute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of LeipzigSloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMing Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern CaliforniaInterdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of WarsawDepartment of Computer Science, University of CaliforniaComputational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS)Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Forecasting models have been used extensively to inform decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this preregistered and prospective study, the authors evaluated 14 short-term models for Germany and Poland, finding considerable heterogeneity in predictions and highlighting the benefits of combined forecasts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0 |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
J. Bracher D. Wolffram J. Deuschel K. Görgen J. L. Ketterer A. Ullrich S. Abbott M. V. Barbarossa D. Bertsimas S. Bhatia M. Bodych N. I. Bosse J. P. Burgard L. Castro G. Fairchild J. Fuhrmann S. Funk K. Gogolewski Q. Gu S. Heyder T. Hotz Y. Kheifetz H. Kirsten T. Krueger E. Krymova M. L. Li J. H. Meinke I. J. Michaud K. Niedzielewski T. Ożański F. Rakowski M. Scholz S. Soni A. Srivastava J. Zieliński D. Zou T. Gneiting M. Schienle List of Contributors by Team |
| spellingShingle |
J. Bracher D. Wolffram J. Deuschel K. Görgen J. L. Ketterer A. Ullrich S. Abbott M. V. Barbarossa D. Bertsimas S. Bhatia M. Bodych N. I. Bosse J. P. Burgard L. Castro G. Fairchild J. Fuhrmann S. Funk K. Gogolewski Q. Gu S. Heyder T. Hotz Y. Kheifetz H. Kirsten T. Krueger E. Krymova M. L. Li J. H. Meinke I. J. Michaud K. Niedzielewski T. Ożański F. Rakowski M. Scholz S. Soni A. Srivastava J. Zieliński D. Zou T. Gneiting M. Schienle List of Contributors by Team A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave Nature Communications |
| author_facet |
J. Bracher D. Wolffram J. Deuschel K. Görgen J. L. Ketterer A. Ullrich S. Abbott M. V. Barbarossa D. Bertsimas S. Bhatia M. Bodych N. I. Bosse J. P. Burgard L. Castro G. Fairchild J. Fuhrmann S. Funk K. Gogolewski Q. Gu S. Heyder T. Hotz Y. Kheifetz H. Kirsten T. Krueger E. Krymova M. L. Li J. H. Meinke I. J. Michaud K. Niedzielewski T. Ożański F. Rakowski M. Scholz S. Soni A. Srivastava J. Zieliński D. Zou T. Gneiting M. Schienle List of Contributors by Team |
| author_sort |
J. Bracher |
| title |
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave |
| title_short |
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave |
| title_full |
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave |
| title_fullStr |
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave |
| title_sort |
pre-registered short-term forecasting study of covid-19 in germany and poland during the second wave |
| publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
| series |
Nature Communications |
| issn |
2041-1723 |
| publishDate |
2021-08-01 |
| description |
Forecasting models have been used extensively to inform decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this preregistered and prospective study, the authors evaluated 14 short-term models for Germany and Poland, finding considerable heterogeneity in predictions and highlighting the benefits of combined forecasts. |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT jbracher apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT dwolffram apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jdeuschel apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT kgorgen apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jlketterer apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT aullrich apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sabbott apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mvbarbarossa apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT dbertsimas apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sbhatia apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mbodych apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT nibosse apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jpburgard apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT lcastro apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT gfairchild apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jfuhrmann apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sfunk apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT kgogolewski apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT qgu apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sheyder apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT thotz apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ykheifetz apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT hkirsten apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT tkrueger apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ekrymova apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mlli apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jhmeinke apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ijmichaud apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT kniedzielewski apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT tozanski apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT frakowski apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mscholz apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ssoni apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT asrivastava apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jzielinski apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT dzou apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT tgneiting apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mschienle apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT listofcontributorsbyteam apreregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jbracher preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT dwolffram preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jdeuschel preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT kgorgen preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jlketterer preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT aullrich preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sabbott preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mvbarbarossa preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT dbertsimas preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sbhatia preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mbodych preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT nibosse preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jpburgard preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT lcastro preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT gfairchild preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jfuhrmann preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sfunk preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT kgogolewski preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT qgu preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT sheyder preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT thotz preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ykheifetz preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT hkirsten preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT tkrueger preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ekrymova preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mlli preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jhmeinke preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ijmichaud preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT kniedzielewski preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT tozanski preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT frakowski preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mscholz preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT ssoni preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT asrivastava preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT jzielinski preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT dzou preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT tgneiting preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT mschienle preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave AT listofcontributorsbyteam preregisteredshorttermforecastingstudyofcovid19ingermanyandpolandduringthesecondwave |
| _version_ |
1721186554083278848 |