CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WHEAT PRODUCERS IN BULGARIA
The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for assessing the level of climatic risk in agriculture and to assess the risk of climate variability faced by wheat producers in Bulgaria. The analysis is based on secondary data on the average wheat yield during the period 1998 - 2018. Using a brea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Trakia University
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Trakia Journal of Sciences |
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| Online Access: | http://tru.uni-sz.bg/tsj/Volume%2017,%202019,%20Supplement%201,%20Series%20Social%20Sciences/3/za%20pe4at/76.pdf |
| Summary: | The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for assessing the level of climatic risk in agriculture and to assess the risk of climate variability faced by wheat producers in Bulgaria. The analysis is based on secondary data on the average wheat yield during the period 1998 - 2018. Using a breakpoint linear
regression model we estimated the predictable component in the time series of the average crop yield. Climate risk was assessed using a detrended coefficient of variation. We conclude that about 10% of the average yield variation from its typical value can be explained by the impact of random factors, among which climate variability over the period. |
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| ISSN: | 1313-3551 |