Stochastic logistic models reproduce experimental time series of microbial communities

• Main Authors: Lana Descheemaeker, Sophie de Buyl
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: eLife Sciences Publications Ltd 2020-07-01
• Series: eLife
• Subjects: stochastic generalized lotka-volterra equations; logistic model; microbial communities dynamics; noise analysis
• Online Access: https://elifesciences.org/articles/55650

We analyze properties of experimental microbial time series, from plankton and the human microbiome, and investigate whether stochastic generalized Lotka-Volterra models could reproduce those properties. We show that this is the case when the noise term is large and a linear function of the species abundance, while the strength of the self-interactions varies over multiple orders of magnitude. We stress the fact that all the observed stochastic properties can be obtained from a logistic model, that is, without interactions, even the niche character of the experimental time series. Linear noise is associated with growth rate stochasticity, which is related to changes in the environment. This suggests that fluctuations in the sparsely sampled experimental time series may be caused by extrinsic sources.