Crowdsourcing prior information to improve study design and data analysis.

• Main Authors: Jeffrey S Chrabaszcz, Joe W Tidwell, Michael R Dougherty
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2017-01-01
• Series: PLoS ONE
• Online Access: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5690646?pdf=render

Though Bayesian methods are being used more frequently, many still struggle with the best method for setting priors with novel measures or task environments. We propose a method for setting priors by eliciting continuous probability distributions from naive participants. This allows us to include any relevant information participants have for a given effect. Even when prior means are near-zero, this method provides a principle way to estimate dispersion and produce shrinkage, reducing the occurrence of overestimated effect sizes. We demonstrate this method with a number of published studies and compare the effect of different prior estimation and aggregation methods.