Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin
Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrol...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2013-12-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/3145/2013/nhess-13-3145-2013.pdf |
| Summary: | Global change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and
intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible
changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain).
This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV
(Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the
expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are
assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia
(Llobregat River basin).
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The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the
intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these
two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the
intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future
occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is
observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the
uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can
shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |