O Método Delfos Aplicado ao Turismo no Espaço Rural

• Main Authors: Rosane Maria Lanzer, Rodrigo Barriquello Pinto, Bernardo Villanueva de Castro Ramos
• Format: Article
• Language: Spanish
• Published: Universidade de Caxias do Sul 2012-11-01
• Series: Rosa dos Ventos
• Online Access: http://www.ucs.br/etc/revistas/index.php/rosadosventos/article/view/1452
• ISSN: 2178-9061

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mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} --> <!--[endif] --> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">O Brasil encontra-se na quarta posi&ccedil;&atilde;o quanto ao desenvolvimento da atividade de Turismo Rural, sendo superado somente pela Espanha, Portugal e Argentina. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">O Turismo Rural no Brasil pode ser explicado por tr&ecirc;s fatores principais: o interesse dos habitantes do meio urbano em conviver com a natureza, a necessidade do produtor em diversificar sua fonte de renda e de agregar valor aos seus produtos. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">O m&eacute;todo Delfos, criado nos anos de 1950, tem por objetivo gerar informa&ccedil;&otilde;es sobre o futuro. O m&eacute;todo se constitui em uma sondagem multif&aacute;sica, desenvolvida com a participa&ccedil;&atilde;o de um grupo de especialistas no assunto, onde o consenso sobre determinado t&oacute;pico representaria uma tend&ecirc;ncia. A aplica&ccedil;&atilde;o desse m&eacute;todo</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> feita</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> em 2003, tendo como horizonte 2010, identificou as poss&iacute;veis tend&ecirc;ncias para o turismo no espa&ccedil;o rural. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar se a prospec&ccedil;&atilde;o realizada se concretizou. Nesse estudo foram consideradas quatro quest&otilde;es: 1) o aumento ou diminui&ccedil;&atilde;o do turismo rural como alternativa de renda; 2) aumento do n&uacute;mero de turistas acima de 65 anos; 3) incremento da participa&ccedil;&atilde;o feminina no gerenciamento dos empreendimentos e 4) quando o n&uacute;mero de propriedades integradas ao turismo rural chegar&aacute; a 8.000. Com exce&ccedil;&atilde;o da quest&atilde;o 2, as respostas otimistas dadas pelos especialistas foram corroboradas por meio das informa&ccedil;&otilde;es obtidas. A previs&atilde;o de aumento, n&atilde;o demasiado otimista, no n&uacute;mero de turistas com idade acima de 65 anos, n&atilde;o pode ser confirmada, ainda que tenha sido constatado na popula&ccedil;&atilde;o brasileira um maior n&uacute;mero de indiv&iacute;duos nessa faixa et&aacute;ria.</span></p> <p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p>