High Accuracy Modeling for Solar PV Power Generation Using Noble BD-LSTM-based Neural Networks with EMA

• Main Authors: Youngil Kim, Keunjoo Seo, Robert J. Harrington, Yongju Lee, Hyeok Kim, Sungjin Kim
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2020-10-01
• Series: Applied Sciences
• Subjects: solar PV generation; SolPV ELA deep neural network; BD-LSTM; ANN; EMA; MAPE
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/20/7339

More accurate self-forecasting not only provides a better-integrated solution for electricity grids but also reduces the cost of operation of the entire power system. To predict solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation (SPVG) for a specific hour, this paper proposes the combination of a two-step neural network bi directional long short-term memory (BD-LSTM) model with an artificial neural network (ANN) model using exponential moving average (EMA) preprocessing. In this study, four types of historical input data are used: hourly PV generation for one week (168 h) ahead, hourly horizontal radiation, hourly ambient temperature, and hourly device (surface) temperature, downloaded from the Korea Open Data Portal. The first strategy is employed using the LSTM prediction model, which forecasts the SPVG of the desired time through the data from the previous week, which is preprocessed to smooth the dynamic SPVG using the EMA approach. The SPVG was predicted using the LSTM model according to the trend of the previous time-series data. However, slight errors still occur because the weather condition of the time is not reflected at the desired time. Therefore, we proposed a second strategy of an ANN model for more accurate estimation to compensate for this slight error using the four inputs predicted by the LSTM model. As a result, the LSTM prediction model with the ANN estimation model using EMA preprocessing exhibited higher accuracy in performance than other options for SPVG.