Assimilating MODIS data-derived minimum input data set and water stress factors into CERES-Maize model improves regional corn yield predictions.

• Main Authors: Ho-Young Ban, Joong-Bae Ahn, Byun-Woo Lee
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2019-01-01
• Series: PLoS ONE
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211874

Crop growth models and remote sensing are useful tools for predicting crop growth and yield, but each tool has inherent drawbacks when predicting crop growth and yield at a regional scale. To improve the accuracy and precision of regional corn yield predictions, a simple approach for assimilating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products into a crop growth model was developed, and regional yield prediction performance was evaluated in a major corn-producing state, Illinois, USA. Corn growth and yield were simulated for each grid using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize model with minimum inputs comprising planting date, fertilizer amount, genetic coefficients, soil, and weather data. Planting date was estimated using a phenology model with a leaf area duration (LAD)-logistic function that describes the seasonal evolution of MODIS-derived leaf area index (LAI). Genetic coefficients of the corn cultivar were determined to be the genetic coefficients of the maturity group [included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.6], which shows the minimum difference between the maximum LAI derived from the LAD-logistic function and that simulated by the CERES-Maize model. In addition, the daily water stress factors were estimated from the ratio between daily leaf area/weight growth rates estimated from the LAD-logistic function and that simulated by the CERES-Maize model under the rain-fed and auto-irrigation conditions. The additional assimilation of MODIS data-derived water stress factors and LAI under the auto-irrigation condition showed the highest prediction accuracy and precision for the yearly corn yield prediction (R2 is 0.78 and the root mean square error is 0.75 t ha-1). The present strategy for assimilating MODIS data into a crop growth model using minimum inputs was successful for predicting regional yields, and it should be examined for spatial portability to diverse agro-climatic and agro-technology regions.