The Implication of Trade War on Contested Leadership between United States and China in Southeast Asia

• Main Authors: Affabile Rifawan, Arief Bustaman, Kodrat Wibowo, Maman Setiawan, Bagja Muljarijadi, Ferry Hadiyanto
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: National Sun Yat-sen University 2020-05-01
• Series: Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: An International Journal
• Subjects: trade war; contested leadership; us; china; southeast asia
• Online Access: https://icaps.nsysu.edu.tw/var/file/131/1131/img/CCPS6(1)-Rifawan-et-al.pdf

The recent rivalry between United States and China has been escalating and becoming stronger, causing a trade war. The trade war can cause a heated situation in international politics. Southeast Asia as the region that has pivotal role for contested leadership between China and United States will inevitably be affected by the impact of this situation. This study aims at describing the implication of trade war as a part of contested leadership between United States and China in regional dynamics. The concept in this study is mainly viewed from the perspective of contested leadership and enclosed as related to the concept in analysing trade war. The qualitative method is the main methodology in this study. The result of this research shows that both sides are potentially inclined to carry out a military manoeuvre in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait and this complicates the domestic conflict in Southeast Asia as the proxy of China and the US in strengthening their respective influence and leadership on the region. The other possibility is increasing cooperation with China in containing US influence. In the economic sector, there are two possibilities with rapid change and very dynamic circumstances. First, Southeast Asia can be a new market and export destination for China and US. Second, the trade war could devastate Southeast Asia’s economy in facing this rivalry.