The Potential Global Distribution of the White Peach Scale <i>Pseudaulacaspis pentagona</i> (Targioni Tozzetti) under Climate Change

• Main Authors: Yunyun Lu, Qing Zhao, Lifang Cheng, Ling Zhao, Hufang Zhang, Jiufeng Wei
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2020-02-01
• Series: Forests
• Subjects: pest; white peach scale; species distribution model; risk assessment; habitat suitability; pest management
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/2/192

The white peach scale <i>Pseudaulacaspis pentagona</i> (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) is a pest that causes significant damage to more than 221 genera of host plants in more than 112 countries. <i>P. pentagona</i> primarily feeds on mulberry, peach, and tea, and this leads to the loosening of the epidermis of trees, which damages nutrient and water transportation in the branches, leading to branch death. <i>P. pentagona</i> is native to China and Japan, and has become an invasive species all over the world. However, the potential distribution of <i>P. pentagona</i> remains unclear. In this study, a potential distribution map of <i>P. pentagona</i> was developed using current and future climate information using MaxEnt. The model indicates that Asia, Europe, South America and North America are a highly suitable habitat range for this species. The MaxEnt models for the potential distribution of <i>P. pentagona</i> for the 2050s and 2070s suggest that in the case of no significant increase or even decrease in the highly suitable area, the suitable area increased significantly on any future climatic scenarios. The predicted area gain in the suitable habitat is 2.82 &#215; 10⁷ km², including more of Asia, such as China, Japan, and Mongolia, and also including India, Vietnam, Romania, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Austria, The Czech Republic, Italy, and Germany in Europe, which shows an increase of 24.5% over the current habitat on RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the 2070s. With the warming of the climate, significant expansions are predicted in the suitable area, especially in Europe and East Asia. Under RCP8.5 for the 2050s, the model-predicted that the area of suitable habitat in China and the Korean Peninsula gains an increase of 18.8% over the current suitable habitat area. Under other climate scenarios, RCP8.5-2070s, the suitable areas were the largest, compared to projection for the current climate scenario (ca. 24.1% increase) which increased to 7.89 &#215; 10⁶ km². In Europe, under RCP8.5 for the 2070s, the highly suitable areas were the largest, compared to the projection for the current climate scenario (ca. 46.2% increase), which increased to 8.64 &#215; 10⁵ km², the area of suitable habitat suitability increased to 4.99 &#215; 10⁶ km² (29.2% increase of the current condition). Potential increases or decreases in distribution ranges were modeled under future climatic scenarios. This study suggests that the most important factor that influenced current distribution of this pest was temperature, and BIO3 (isothermality) was the most important factor that contributed to 48.6% of the potential distribution map. Given the rapid spread of <i>P. pentagona</i> and the serious risk this species poses to local ecosystems, warning modelling and practical strategies to prevent the establishment and expansion of this species should be sought. This distribution map will help governments to identify areas that are suitable for current and future infestations, and to optimize pest management strategies.