PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE

PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE

%B It is shown that there are certain rules which connect a height of previous solar activity cycle with the entropy of the next one. For even and odd cycles these rules are asymmetrical. So if it is known height of the previous cycle one can make estimation for entropy of the next one according to...

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Main Author: O. V. Chumak
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Odessa I. I. Mechnykov National University 2017-03-01
Series:Odessa Astronomical Publications
Online Access:http://oap.onu.edu.ua/article/view/95852
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spelling doaj-179c6539138b49d3bf762fc9a87d71872020-11-25T02:48:36ZengOdessa I. I. Mechnykov National UniversityOdessa Astronomical Publications1810-42152017-03-0120210.18524/1810-4215.2007.20.9585295852PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLEO. V. Chumak0Shternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University%B It is shown that there are certain rules which connect a height of previous solar activity cycle with the entropy of the next one. For even and odd cycles these rules are asymmetrical. So if it is known height of the previous cycle one can make estimation for entropy of the next one according to one of these rules. It has been shown also, that entropy (ES) of a cycle has good correlation with its height. On the other hand height of a cycle (W<sub>max</sub>) correlates with duration of its rise branch (Waldmeier's rule), and it allows to get the estimation of epoch of maximum (T<sub>max</sub>) of future cycle. Epignosis shows that the reliability of such forecasts is about 83%. Below we present the values of main parameters of future 24 cycle obtained according to these rules: Shannon's entropy ES = 5.0 &plusmn; 0.2; height of the cycle W<sub>max</sub> = 95&plusmn; 20 (in monthly Wolf numbers); duration of arise branch Ta = 4.5 &plusmn; 0.5 years; epoch of the cycle maximum T<sub>max</sub> = 2012.25 &plusmn; 0.5 year. Full version of the paper is prepared to be published in Solar System Research.http://oap.onu.edu.ua/article/view/95852
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author O. V. Chumak
spellingShingle O. V. Chumak
PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE
Odessa Astronomical Publications
author_facet O. V. Chumak
author_sort O. V. Chumak
title PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE
title_short PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE
title_full PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE
title_fullStr PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE
title_full_unstemmed PREDICTION OF MAIN PARAMETERS OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE
title_sort prediction of main parameters of 24 solar cycle
publisher Odessa I. I. Mechnykov National University
series Odessa Astronomical Publications
issn 1810-4215
publishDate 2017-03-01
description %B It is shown that there are certain rules which connect a height of previous solar activity cycle with the entropy of the next one. For even and odd cycles these rules are asymmetrical. So if it is known height of the previous cycle one can make estimation for entropy of the next one according to one of these rules. It has been shown also, that entropy (ES) of a cycle has good correlation with its height. On the other hand height of a cycle (W<sub>max</sub>) correlates with duration of its rise branch (Waldmeier's rule), and it allows to get the estimation of epoch of maximum (T<sub>max</sub>) of future cycle. Epignosis shows that the reliability of such forecasts is about 83%. Below we present the values of main parameters of future 24 cycle obtained according to these rules: Shannon's entropy ES = 5.0 &plusmn; 0.2; height of the cycle W<sub>max</sub> = 95&plusmn; 20 (in monthly Wolf numbers); duration of arise branch Ta = 4.5 &plusmn; 0.5 years; epoch of the cycle maximum T<sub>max</sub> = 2012.25 &plusmn; 0.5 year. Full version of the paper is prepared to be published in Solar System Research.
url http://oap.onu.edu.ua/article/view/95852
work_keys_str_mv AT ovchumak predictionofmainparametersof24solarcycle
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