Health Impact of Air Pollution from Shipping in the Baltic Sea: Effects of Different Spatial Resolutions in Sweden

• Main Authors: Nandi S. Mwase, Alicia Ekström, Jan Eiof Jonson, Erik Svensson, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Janine Wichmann, Peter Molnár, Leo Stockfelt
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2020-10-01
• Series: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
• Subjects: PM2.5; SECA; EMEP model; population exposure; health effects; myocardial infarction
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/21/7963
• ISSN: 1661-7827; 1660-4601

In 2015, stricter regulations to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions and particulate air pollution from shipping were implemented in the Baltic Sea. We investigated the effects on population exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM_2.5) from shipping and estimated related morbidity and mortality in Sweden’s 21 counties at different spatial resolutions. We used a regional model to estimate exposure in Sweden and a city-scale model for Gothenburg. Effects of PM_2.5 exposure on total mortality, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were estimated using exposure–response functions from the literature and combining them into disability-adjusted life years (DALYS). PM_2.5exposure from shipping in Gothenburg decreased by 7% (1.6 to 1.5 µg/m³) using the city-scale model, and 35% (0.5 to 0.3 µg/m³) using the regional model. Different population resolutions had no effects on population exposures. In the city-scale model, annual premature deaths due to shipping PM_2.5dropped from 97 with the high-sulfur scenario to 90 in the low-sulfur scenario, and in the regional model from 32 to 21. In Sweden, DALYs lost due to PM_2.5from Baltic Sea shipping decreased from approximately 5700 to 4200. In conclusion, sulfur emission restrictions for shipping had positive effects on health, but the model resolution affects estimations.