| Summary: | Abstract Background The prognosis is very poor for lung cancer patients with bone metastasis. Unfortunately, a suitable method has yet to become available for the early diagnosis of bone metastasis in lung cancer patients. The present work describes an attempt to develop a novel model for the early identification of lung cancer patients with bone metastasis risk. Methods As the test group, 205 primary lung cancer patients were recruited, of which 127 patients had bone metastasis; the other 78 patients without bone metastasis were set as the negative control. Additionally, 106 healthy volunteers were enrolled as the normal control. Serum levels of several cytokines in the bone microenvironment (CaN, OPG, PTHrP, and IL-6) and bone turnover markers (tP1NP, β-CTx) were detected in all samples by ECLIA or ELISA assay. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate diagnostic abilities and to assess the attributable risk of bone metastasis for each of these indicators; the diagnostic model was established via logistic regression analysis. The prospective validation group consisted of 44 patients with stage IV primary lung cancer on whom a follow-up of at least 2 years was conducted, during which serum bone biochemical marker concentrations were monitored. Results The serological molecular model for the diagnosis of bone metastasis was logit (p). ROC analysis showed that when logit (p) > 0.452, the area under curve of the model was 0.939 (sensitivity: 85.8%, specificity: 89.7%). Model validation demonstrated accuracy with a high degree of consistency (specificity: 85.7%, specificity: 87.5%, Kappa: 0.770). The average predictive time for bone metastasis occurrence of the model was 9.46 months earlier than that of the bone scan diagnosis. Serum OPG, PTHrP, tP1NP, β-CTx, and the diagnostic model logit (p) were all positively correlated with bone metastasis progression (P < 0.05). Conclusions This diagnostic model has the potential to be a simple, non-invasive, and sensitive tool for diagnosing the occurrence and monitoring the progression of bone metastasis in patients with lung cancer.
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