Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

Abstract We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups...

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Main Authors: Subhendu Paul, Emmanuel Lorin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2021-06-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8
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spelling doaj-15914ebea23d4f0c98511ed80d9e755e2021-06-20T11:31:28ZengNature Publishing GroupScientific Reports2045-23222021-06-011111910.1038/s41598-021-91834-8Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian contextSubhendu Paul0Emmanuel Lorin1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton UniversityAbstract We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Subhendu Paul
Emmanuel Lorin
spellingShingle Subhendu Paul
Emmanuel Lorin
Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
Scientific Reports
author_facet Subhendu Paul
Emmanuel Lorin
author_sort Subhendu Paul
title Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_short Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_full Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_fullStr Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_full_unstemmed Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_sort distribution of incubation periods of covid-19 in the canadian context
publisher Nature Publishing Group
series Scientific Reports
issn 2045-2322
publishDate 2021-06-01
description Abstract We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8
work_keys_str_mv AT subhendupaul distributionofincubationperiodsofcovid19inthecanadiancontext
AT emmanuellorin distributionofincubationperiodsofcovid19inthecanadiancontext
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