Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

• Main Authors: Eduardo Massad, Marcos Amaku, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho, Claudio José Struchiner, Luis Fernandez Lopez, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Marcelo Nascimento Burattini
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2017-11-01
• Series: Infectious Disease Modelling
• Subjects: Aedes aegypti; Mosquitoes' densities; Dengue; Zika virus; Yellow fever
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042717300507

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.