Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability

Hydrological modeling frameworks require an accurate representation of evaporation fluxes for appropriate quantification of, e.g., the water balance, soil moisture budget, recharge and groundwater processes. Many frameworks have used the concept of potential evaporation, often estimated for differen...

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Main Authors: R. P. Bartholomeus, J. H. Stagge, L. M. Tallaksen, J. P. M. Witte
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2015-02-01
Series:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Online Access:http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/997/2015/hess-19-997-2015.pdf
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spelling doaj-1247d005c80b4ccbb98180b8089581422020-11-24T22:51:07ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382015-02-01192997101410.5194/hess-19-997-2015Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variabilityR. P. Bartholomeus0J. H. Stagge1L. M. Tallaksen2J. P. M. Witte3KWR Watercycle Research Institute, P.O. Box 1072, 3430 BB Nieuwegein, the NetherlandsDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, NorwayKWR Watercycle Research Institute, P.O. Box 1072, 3430 BB Nieuwegein, the NetherlandsHydrological modeling frameworks require an accurate representation of evaporation fluxes for appropriate quantification of, e.g., the water balance, soil moisture budget, recharge and groundwater processes. Many frameworks have used the concept of potential evaporation, often estimated for different vegetation classes by multiplying the evaporation from a reference surface ("reference evaporation") by crop-specific scaling factors ("crop factors"). Though this two-step potential evaporation approach undoubtedly has practical advantages, the empirical nature of both reference evaporation methods and crop factors limits its usability in extrapolations under non-stationary climatic conditions. In this paper, rather than simply warning about the dangers of extrapolation, we quantify the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates for different vegetation classes using the two-step approach when calibrated using a non-stationary climate. We used the past century's time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of multi-decadal atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to evaluate the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to the choice and length of the calibration period. We show that using empirical coefficients outside their calibration range may lead to systematic differences between process-based and empirical reference evaporation methods, and systematic errors in estimated potential evaporation components. Quantification of errors provides a possibility to correct potential evaporation calculations and to rate them for their suitability to model climate conditions that differ significantly from the historical record, so-called no-analog climate conditions.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/997/2015/hess-19-997-2015.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author R. P. Bartholomeus
J. H. Stagge
L. M. Tallaksen
J. P. M. Witte
spellingShingle R. P. Bartholomeus
J. H. Stagge
L. M. Tallaksen
J. P. M. Witte
Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
author_facet R. P. Bartholomeus
J. H. Stagge
L. M. Tallaksen
J. P. M. Witte
author_sort R. P. Bartholomeus
title Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
title_short Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
title_full Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
title_fullStr Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
title_full_unstemmed Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
title_sort sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
issn 1027-5606
1607-7938
publishDate 2015-02-01
description Hydrological modeling frameworks require an accurate representation of evaporation fluxes for appropriate quantification of, e.g., the water balance, soil moisture budget, recharge and groundwater processes. Many frameworks have used the concept of potential evaporation, often estimated for different vegetation classes by multiplying the evaporation from a reference surface ("reference evaporation") by crop-specific scaling factors ("crop factors"). Though this two-step potential evaporation approach undoubtedly has practical advantages, the empirical nature of both reference evaporation methods and crop factors limits its usability in extrapolations under non-stationary climatic conditions. In this paper, rather than simply warning about the dangers of extrapolation, we quantify the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates for different vegetation classes using the two-step approach when calibrated using a non-stationary climate. We used the past century's time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of multi-decadal atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to evaluate the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to the choice and length of the calibration period. We show that using empirical coefficients outside their calibration range may lead to systematic differences between process-based and empirical reference evaporation methods, and systematic errors in estimated potential evaporation components. Quantification of errors provides a possibility to correct potential evaporation calculations and to rate them for their suitability to model climate conditions that differ significantly from the historical record, so-called no-analog climate conditions.
url http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/997/2015/hess-19-997-2015.pdf
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