Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus

Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for understanding and countering its current loss. However, monitoring of many species is hindered by their difficult detection due to crepuscular activity, hidden phases of the life cycle, short activity period and low population density...

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Main Authors: Arno Thomaes, Pieter Verschelde, Detlef Mader, Eva Sprecher-Uebersax, Maria Fremlin, Thierry Onkelinx, Marcos Méndez
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Pensoft Publishers 2017-07-01
Series:Nature Conservation
Online Access:https://natureconservation.pensoft.net/articles.php?id=11761
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spelling doaj-11558080d5b24aab9cb75269cefe9ee92020-11-24T21:41:25ZengPensoft PublishersNature Conservation1314-69471314-33012017-07-011911810.3897/natureconservation.19.1176111761Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervusArno Thomaes0Pieter Verschelde1Detlef Mader2Eva Sprecher-Uebersax3Maria Fremlin4Thierry Onkelinx5Marcos Méndez6Research Institute for Nature and ForestResearch Institute for Nature and ForestUnaffiliatedNaturhistorisches Museum BaselUnaffiliatedResearch Institute for Nature and ForestRey Juan Carlos University Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for understanding and countering its current loss. However, monitoring of many species is hindered by their difficult detection due to crepuscular activity, hidden phases of the life cycle, short activity period and low population density. Few statistical power analyses of declining trends have been published for terrestrial invertebrates. Consequently, no knowledge exists of the success rate of monitoring elusive invertebrates. Here data from monitoring transects of the European stag beetle, Lucanus cervus, is used to investigate whether the population trend of this elusive species can be adequately monitored. Data from studies in UK, Switzerland and Germany were compiled to parameterize a simulation model explaining the stag beetle abundance as a function of temperature and seasonality. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the effort needed to detect a population abundance decline of 1%/year over a period of 12 years. To reveal such a decline, at least 240 1-hour transect walks on 40 to 100 transects need to be implemented in weekly intervals during warm evenings. It is concluded that monitoring of stag beetles is feasible and the effort is not greater than that which has been found for other invertebrates. Based on this example, it is assumed that many other elusive species with similar life history traits can be monitored with moderate efforts. As saproxylic invertebrates account for a large share of the forest biodiversity, although many are elusive, it is proposed that at least some flagship species are included in monitoring programmes. https://natureconservation.pensoft.net/articles.php?id=11761
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Arno Thomaes
Pieter Verschelde
Detlef Mader
Eva Sprecher-Uebersax
Maria Fremlin
Thierry Onkelinx
Marcos Méndez
spellingShingle Arno Thomaes
Pieter Verschelde
Detlef Mader
Eva Sprecher-Uebersax
Maria Fremlin
Thierry Onkelinx
Marcos Méndez
Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
Nature Conservation
author_facet Arno Thomaes
Pieter Verschelde
Detlef Mader
Eva Sprecher-Uebersax
Maria Fremlin
Thierry Onkelinx
Marcos Méndez
author_sort Arno Thomaes
title Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
title_short Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
title_full Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
title_fullStr Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
title_full_unstemmed Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
title_sort can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? a statistical power analysis on lucanus cervus
publisher Pensoft Publishers
series Nature Conservation
issn 1314-6947
1314-3301
publishDate 2017-07-01
description Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for understanding and countering its current loss. However, monitoring of many species is hindered by their difficult detection due to crepuscular activity, hidden phases of the life cycle, short activity period and low population density. Few statistical power analyses of declining trends have been published for terrestrial invertebrates. Consequently, no knowledge exists of the success rate of monitoring elusive invertebrates. Here data from monitoring transects of the European stag beetle, Lucanus cervus, is used to investigate whether the population trend of this elusive species can be adequately monitored. Data from studies in UK, Switzerland and Germany were compiled to parameterize a simulation model explaining the stag beetle abundance as a function of temperature and seasonality. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the effort needed to detect a population abundance decline of 1%/year over a period of 12 years. To reveal such a decline, at least 240 1-hour transect walks on 40 to 100 transects need to be implemented in weekly intervals during warm evenings. It is concluded that monitoring of stag beetles is feasible and the effort is not greater than that which has been found for other invertebrates. Based on this example, it is assumed that many other elusive species with similar life history traits can be monitored with moderate efforts. As saproxylic invertebrates account for a large share of the forest biodiversity, although many are elusive, it is proposed that at least some flagship species are included in monitoring programmes.
url https://natureconservation.pensoft.net/articles.php?id=11761
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