Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis

In this article we investigate the prospects for large-scale hydropower deployment in Ethiopia. With two distinct modelling approaches we find high projections for future hydropower generation: between 71 and 87 TWh/yr by 2050 in a stringent climate change control scenario in which Ethiopia contribu...

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Main Authors: Bob van der Zwaan, Agnese Boccalon, Francesco Dalla Longa
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2018-01-01
Series:Energy Strategy Reviews
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X17300676
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spelling doaj-11500ac8befd41c2af6c81d3a9ac0c762020-11-24T20:45:40ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2018-01-01191930Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysisBob van der Zwaan0Agnese Boccalon1Francesco Dalla Longa2Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Bologna, Italy; University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Science (HIMS), Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Corresponding author. Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.Deltares, Delft, The NetherlandsEnergy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsIn this article we investigate the prospects for large-scale hydropower deployment in Ethiopia. With two distinct modelling approaches we find high projections for future hydropower generation: between 71 and 87 TWh/yr by 2050 in a stringent climate change control scenario in which Ethiopia contributes substantially to global efforts to reach the 2 °C target of the Paris Agreement. This elevated level is obtained despite domestic water use and irrigated agriculture water demand expansions, and irrespective of hydrological effects from climate change in terms of a drop in average precipitation nation-wide. This amount of hydro-electricity production matches the expected national hydropower potential. Yet, we encourage authorities to take due account of the large impact that climate change may have on rainfall during particular months or years at individual water reservoirs, which we think should be researched in greater detail. Our combined energy cost-minimisation and hydrological balance analysis shows that our models can be jointly used for the assessment of hydropower as climate change mitigation option, and can assist in the design of policies that integrate the energy and water sectors. Our case study did not yield direct reasons for the Ethiopian government to swiftly stop pursuing its current ambitious national hydropower development plan, but we encourage it to adequately internalise an extensive range of factors – including environmental, geopolitical and social – that may induce it to take a different course. Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Hydropower, Impacts, Ethiopia, Energy-water nexushttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X17300676
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Bob van der Zwaan
Agnese Boccalon
Francesco Dalla Longa
spellingShingle Bob van der Zwaan
Agnese Boccalon
Francesco Dalla Longa
Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis
Energy Strategy Reviews
author_facet Bob van der Zwaan
Agnese Boccalon
Francesco Dalla Longa
author_sort Bob van der Zwaan
title Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis
title_short Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis
title_full Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis
title_fullStr Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis
title_full_unstemmed Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis
title_sort prospects for hydropower in ethiopia: an energy-water nexus analysis
publisher Elsevier
series Energy Strategy Reviews
issn 2211-467X
publishDate 2018-01-01
description In this article we investigate the prospects for large-scale hydropower deployment in Ethiopia. With two distinct modelling approaches we find high projections for future hydropower generation: between 71 and 87 TWh/yr by 2050 in a stringent climate change control scenario in which Ethiopia contributes substantially to global efforts to reach the 2 °C target of the Paris Agreement. This elevated level is obtained despite domestic water use and irrigated agriculture water demand expansions, and irrespective of hydrological effects from climate change in terms of a drop in average precipitation nation-wide. This amount of hydro-electricity production matches the expected national hydropower potential. Yet, we encourage authorities to take due account of the large impact that climate change may have on rainfall during particular months or years at individual water reservoirs, which we think should be researched in greater detail. Our combined energy cost-minimisation and hydrological balance analysis shows that our models can be jointly used for the assessment of hydropower as climate change mitigation option, and can assist in the design of policies that integrate the energy and water sectors. Our case study did not yield direct reasons for the Ethiopian government to swiftly stop pursuing its current ambitious national hydropower development plan, but we encourage it to adequately internalise an extensive range of factors – including environmental, geopolitical and social – that may induce it to take a different course. Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Hydropower, Impacts, Ethiopia, Energy-water nexus
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X17300676
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AT agneseboccalon prospectsforhydropowerinethiopiaanenergywaternexusanalysis
AT francescodallalonga prospectsforhydropowerinethiopiaanenergywaternexusanalysis
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