| Summary: | In this article we investigate the prospects for large-scale hydropower deployment in Ethiopia. With two distinct modelling approaches we find high projections for future hydropower generation: between 71 and 87 TWh/yr by 2050 in a stringent climate change control scenario in which Ethiopia contributes substantially to global efforts to reach the 2 °C target of the Paris Agreement. This elevated level is obtained despite domestic water use and irrigated agriculture water demand expansions, and irrespective of hydrological effects from climate change in terms of a drop in average precipitation nation-wide. This amount of hydro-electricity production matches the expected national hydropower potential. Yet, we encourage authorities to take due account of the large impact that climate change may have on rainfall during particular months or years at individual water reservoirs, which we think should be researched in greater detail. Our combined energy cost-minimisation and hydrological balance analysis shows that our models can be jointly used for the assessment of hydropower as climate change mitigation option, and can assist in the design of policies that integrate the energy and water sectors. Our case study did not yield direct reasons for the Ethiopian government to swiftly stop pursuing its current ambitious national hydropower development plan, but we encourage it to adequately internalise an extensive range of factors – including environmental, geopolitical and social – that may induce it to take a different course. Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Hydropower, Impacts, Ethiopia, Energy-water nexus
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