More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting

Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, th...

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Main Authors: Spencer P. Chainey, Dennis L. Lazarus
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-09-01
Series:Social Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/9/348
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spelling doaj-1147bf1181734b7f8d3423a868c18fb72021-09-26T01:26:18ZengMDPI AGSocial Sciences2076-07602021-09-011034834810.3390/socsci10090348More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American SettingSpencer P. Chainey0Dennis L. Lazarus1Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UKDepartment of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UKResearch that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/9/348offender populationcapture-recapturerisk of arrestimpunityBrazilMexico
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Spencer P. Chainey
Dennis L. Lazarus
spellingShingle Spencer P. Chainey
Dennis L. Lazarus
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
Social Sciences
offender population
capture-recapture
risk of arrest
impunity
Brazil
Mexico
author_facet Spencer P. Chainey
Dennis L. Lazarus
author_sort Spencer P. Chainey
title More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
title_short More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
title_full More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
title_fullStr More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
title_full_unstemmed More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
title_sort more offenders, more crime: estimating the size of the offender population in a latin american setting
publisher MDPI AG
series Social Sciences
issn 2076-0760
publishDate 2021-09-01
description Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings.
topic offender population
capture-recapture
risk of arrest
impunity
Brazil
Mexico
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/9/348
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