More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting
Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, th...
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doaj-1147bf1181734b7f8d3423a868c18fb72021-09-26T01:26:18ZengMDPI AGSocial Sciences2076-07602021-09-011034834810.3390/socsci10090348More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American SettingSpencer P. Chainey0Dennis L. Lazarus1Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UKDepartment of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UKResearch that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/9/348offender populationcapture-recapturerisk of arrestimpunityBrazilMexico |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Spencer P. Chainey Dennis L. Lazarus |
spellingShingle |
Spencer P. Chainey Dennis L. Lazarus More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting Social Sciences offender population capture-recapture risk of arrest impunity Brazil Mexico |
author_facet |
Spencer P. Chainey Dennis L. Lazarus |
author_sort |
Spencer P. Chainey |
title |
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting |
title_short |
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting |
title_full |
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting |
title_fullStr |
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting |
title_full_unstemmed |
More Offenders, More Crime: Estimating the Size of the Offender Population in a Latin American Setting |
title_sort |
more offenders, more crime: estimating the size of the offender population in a latin american setting |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Social Sciences |
issn |
2076-0760 |
publishDate |
2021-09-01 |
description |
Research that has examined the high levels of crime experienced in Latin American settings has suggested that macrostructural variables (such as social inequality), and factors associated with development and institutional capacity, offer explanations for these high crime levels. Although useful, these studies have yet to quantify how these explanations translate to the dynamics of offending activities. In the current study, we examine a key component related to offending dynamics: the size of the offender population. Using two capture-recapture techniques and a bootstrap simulation, estimates were generated of the sizes of the offender populations for three comparable cities in Brazil, Mexico, and England. Each of the techniques generated similar estimates for the offender population size for each city, but with these estimates varying substantially between the cities. This included the estimated offender population size for the Brazilian city being twenty-five times greater than that for the English city. Risk of arrest values were also generated, with these calculated to be substantially lower for the Brazilian and Mexican cities than for the English city. The results provide a quantification of criminal behavior that offers a potential new insight into the high levels of crime that are experienced in Latin American settings. |
topic |
offender population capture-recapture risk of arrest impunity Brazil Mexico |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/10/9/348 |
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