Un exemple d’effets de dominos : la panique dans les catastrophes urbaines

• Main Author: Damienne Provitolo
• Format: Article
• Language: deu
• Published: Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités 2005-11-01
• Series: Cybergeo
• Subjects: disaster; domino effects; panic; modeling/modelling
• Online Access: http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/2991

New area of research, risk and catastrophe, whether they are of natural, technological, economical, or sanitary origin, never cease to worry people. Very complex, risk and disaster are the main focus of this paper. This complexity is generated notably by « domino effects », which emerge particularly during urban catastrophe. In this context, they are considered as essential by the majority of risks specialists. But in spite of this weight often granted to « domino effects » in urban environments, it seems that few models only really integrate them.Because system dynamics modelling allows the comprehension of this complexity, it has been retained to build models of risk and catastrophe. This has been implemented using Stella Research software which simulates stocks and flows equations. This modelling allowed on one side, to integrate the component « domino effect » in the disaster system, to overcome the fracture between nature and society ; on the other side it gave the possibility to surpass the static vision of phenomena and to privilege their study as dynamic systems. This communication proposes a model which simulates a very well known « domino effect » : motorists panic during flooding. First, the model is built. Then, we give a few simulation results concerning the Genoa urban area (Italy) during the swelling of the Bisagno river, on October 8, 1970. This model is one of the rare examples of the emergence of a « domino effect » in the field of urban catastrophe.