Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are ob...

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Main Authors: Yang beibei Ji, Rui Jiang, Ming Qu, Edward Chung
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Hindawi Limited 2014-01-01
Series:Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/508039
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spelling doaj-10992ed851784c8fb4cdaf235b8dabef2020-11-24T22:34:27ZengHindawi LimitedMathematical Problems in Engineering1024-123X1563-51472014-01-01201410.1155/2014/508039508039Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard ModelsYang beibei Ji0Rui Jiang1Ming Qu2Edward Chung3School of Management, Shanghai University, Shangda Road 99, Shanghai, ChinaSmart Transport Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Level 8, P Block, Brisbane, QLD 4001, AustraliaSmart Transport Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Level 8, P Block, Brisbane, QLD 4001, AustraliaSmart Transport Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Level 8, P Block, Brisbane, QLD 4001, AustraliaAccurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/508039
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Yang beibei Ji
Rui Jiang
Ming Qu
Edward Chung
spellingShingle Yang beibei Ji
Rui Jiang
Ming Qu
Edward Chung
Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
author_facet Yang beibei Ji
Rui Jiang
Ming Qu
Edward Chung
author_sort Yang beibei Ji
title Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models
title_short Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models
title_full Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models
title_fullStr Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models
title_full_unstemmed Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models
title_sort traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models
publisher Hindawi Limited
series Mathematical Problems in Engineering
issn 1024-123X
1563-5147
publishDate 2014-01-01
description Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/508039
work_keys_str_mv AT yangbeibeiji trafficincidentclearancetimeandarrivaltimepredictionbasedonhazardmodels
AT ruijiang trafficincidentclearancetimeandarrivaltimepredictionbasedonhazardmodels
AT mingqu trafficincidentclearancetimeandarrivaltimepredictionbasedonhazardmodels
AT edwardchung trafficincidentclearancetimeandarrivaltimepredictionbasedonhazardmodels
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