Forecasting the Romanian sectoral economy using the input-output method

• Main Authors: Liliana DUGULEANĂ, Constantin DUGULEANĂ
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Transilvania University Press 2017-07-01
• Series: Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov. Series V : Economic Sciences
• Subjects: input-output analysis; forecasting; output multipliers; backward linkage; forward linkage
• Online Access: http://webbut.unitbv.ro/Bulletin/Series%20V/2017/BULETIN%20I%20PDF/16_DUGULEANA_Duguleana.pdf
• ISSN: 2065-2194

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the sectoral output in 2013 based on the input-output structure of Romanian economy in 2010. Considering that the economic linkage mechanisms do not easily change during certain time periods, the forecasting is possible, even if not in the sequence of the time passing. Using the technical matrix of the sectoral structure described for year 2010 and some known indicators of the economic sectors, as the value added for each sector in 2013, the sectoral output is projected for 2013. The Romanian GDP in 2013 is estimated based on the input-output model. From a managerial perspective, this study is useful to forecast the sectoral output and to understand the sectoral behaviour, based on the input-output analysis of the value added, the compensation for employees and the final demand, which were considered here.