The Evolution of the Population of the City of Zagreb with Special Emphasis on Immigration in the Period 1991−2001

• Main Author: Nada Antić
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies 2001-12-01
• Series: Migracijske i Etniĉke Teme
• Subjects: demographic growth; net migration balance; immigration; the City of Zagreb; city neighbourhoods; the broader Zagreb region
• Online Access: http://hrcak.srce.hr/file/184767
• ISSN: 1333-2546; 1848-9184

The paper describes the evolution of Zagreb's population and its geographical distribution in the city during the last ten years. Emphasis is placed on the role of migration (involving essentially the settling in of new inhabitants) and on the influence of the armed conflict in the 1990s. The author also outlines some predictions regarding future developments. The paper uses primarily the results of the last censuses, including those of the recent census of 2001, as well as statistical data on the current population, on displaced persons and refugees, information in the possession of the municipality, etc. As to migration, since the last census was lacking in regard to migration indicators and there is no population registry, vital-statistical methods were applied to obtain a net migration balance. In the past, especially after WWII, Zagreb experienced considerable demographical growth, owing to its attractiveness for migration flows from other regions in Croatia and in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina. The natural component in the evolution of the population was equally positive, yet a tendency towards reduction appeared in the 1980s. The first part of the paper reviews the demographic expansion of Zagreb in the earlier period (1857−1991), which was accompanied by an extension of the city. The results of the last census (2001) indicate a notable slowing down of population growth in Zagreb (arriving at a growth rate of 0.39%), for although war-induced migrations in the period 1991−1995 did direct the majority of the refugees and displaced persons to Zagreb, this flow was not accompanied by permanent settlement. Most migrants originated from Bosnia and Herzegovina (mainly refugees), after which followed migrants from regions in Croatia. Studies also show that during the most recent period there was a clear increase of out-migration from Zagreb to the outer suburbs and of emigration abroad. The second part of the paper offers indicators on the global transformation of the Zagreb population in the period 1991−2001, along with parallel data for the outer suburbs and Croatia, as well as an explanation of the increasingly dynamic growth in the peripheral urban area. It turns out that, at the present level of development, the process of sub-urbanisation is extending itself and being reinforced under the influence of the metropolis. Based on the data presented, which indicate an ever increasing decentralisation of the population in the region as well as of social and economic facilities in the broad peripheral area, it seems that Zagreb, or rather the Zagreb metropolitan region (a constellation of small or medium-sized agglomerations and about 200 more or less urbanised localities) is undergoing a phase of development that could be termed accelerated decentralisation. The third part of the article describes and explains the role of migration, or rather of the net migration balance and of natural population development in regard to global population growth in Zagreb in the period between the two previous censuses, as compared to earlier developments. The author concludes that population growth in this period was entirely the result of a positive net migration balance, since the number of persons that settled in the city surpassed the number that departed from it (by about 31,000). However, a negative natural growth rate (-2222) appeared for the first time between the last two censuses, owing to a fall in the birth rate, which was influenced by the war and also by economic difficulties brought on by the war. The author lays out some basic goals pertaining to the demographic development of Zagreb and its outer suburbs until 2015, along with the desired rate of demographic growth. Besides giving an evaluation of the origin of the newly settled population (based on statistical analysis of migration flows) and examining the development of localities in which this population settled, the author points out the need to implement policy measures and to define planned orientations, favouring certain parts of the city.