Regression Analysis of the Impact of Demographic and Economic Indicators on the Status of Pension Provision in Different World Countries

• Main Author: Demchenko Karyna I.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine 2020-05-01
• Series: Bìznes Inform
• Subjects: regression; least square method; pension provision; expenses and incomes of the pension fund; rate of pension contribution; coefficient of age dependency; panel study
• Online Access: https://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-2020-5_0-pages-183_189.pdf

The article is aimed at studying the effect of impact of demographic and economic indicators on the status of pension provision in 54 different countries of the world for 2010-2019. In the analysis and generalization of scientific works of domestic and foreign scholars, it was found that much attention is paid to the dynamics of expenditures and incomes of pension funds, but not taken into account (sufficiently) is the specific numerical influence of the factors, which can lead to a reduction or increase in the expenditures and incomes of PF. Therefore, it is important to research the effects of the impact of economic and demographic indicators on the financial status of PF in different countries. Using the regression analysis, the article analyzes the impact of the increase in the coefficient of age dependency, rate of pension contribution, unemployment rate, GDP and other indicators on the dynamics of expenditures and incomes of pension funds of different world countries, applying the least square method. The fixed-effect panel study method and heteroskedatric standard errors are used to check the reliability and sustainability of the results, which are clustered at the country level to account for successive correlations. Results are the average effect of impact for the total number of observations, the aggregate effect for the specified unions and organizations and a separate effect for Ukraine. According to the author, the previous pension reforms were not effective enough, given the status of Ukraine’s pension provision, as some procedure for introducing reform was not followed and the necessary resources were not adequately prepared. Therefore, a phased scheme is proposed to introduce a reform, to improve the status of pension provision, and ensure its socio-economic efficiency.