A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast

A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast

An accurate forecast of the power generated by a wind turbine is of paramount importance for its optimal exploitation. Several forecasting methods have been proposed either based on a physical modeling or using a statistical approach. All of them rely on the availability of high quality measures of...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Marino Marrocu, Luca Massidda
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2017-11-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
wind power
power forecast
distribution mapping
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/12/1967
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spelling doaj-0d5199c71821468d8e9d52790a5ff5de2020-11-25T02:43:19ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732017-11-011012196710.3390/en10121967en10121967A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed ForecastMarino Marrocu0Luca Massidda1CRS4, Center for Advanced Studies, Research and Development in Sardinia, loc. Piscina Manna ed. 1, 09010 Pula (CA), ItalyCRS4, Center for Advanced Studies, Research and Development in Sardinia, loc. Piscina Manna ed. 1, 09010 Pula (CA), ItalyAn accurate forecast of the power generated by a wind turbine is of paramount importance for its optimal exploitation. Several forecasting methods have been proposed either based on a physical modeling or using a statistical approach. All of them rely on the availability of high quality measures of local wind speed, corresponding generated power and on numerical weather forecasts. In this paper, a simple and effective wind power forecast technique, based on the probability distribution mapping of wind speed forecast and observed power data, is presented and it is applied to two turbines located on the island of Borkum (Germany) in the North Sea. The wind speed forecast of the ECMWF model at 100 m from the ground is used as the prognostic meteorological parameter. Training procedures are based entirely on relatively short time series of power measurements. Results show that our approach has skills that are similar or better than those obtained using more standard methods when measured with mean absolute error.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/12/1967wind powerpower forecastdistribution mapping
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Marino Marrocu
Luca Massidda
spellingShingle Marino Marrocu
Luca Massidda
A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast
Energies
wind power
power forecast
distribution mapping
author_facet Marino Marrocu
Luca Massidda
author_sort Marino Marrocu
title A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast
title_short A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast
title_full A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast
title_fullStr A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast
title_full_unstemmed A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast
title_sort simple and effective approach for the prediction of turbine power production from wind speed forecast
publisher MDPI AG
series Energies
issn 1996-1073
publishDate 2017-11-01
description An accurate forecast of the power generated by a wind turbine is of paramount importance for its optimal exploitation. Several forecasting methods have been proposed either based on a physical modeling or using a statistical approach. All of them rely on the availability of high quality measures of local wind speed, corresponding generated power and on numerical weather forecasts. In this paper, a simple and effective wind power forecast technique, based on the probability distribution mapping of wind speed forecast and observed power data, is presented and it is applied to two turbines located on the island of Borkum (Germany) in the North Sea. The wind speed forecast of the ECMWF model at 100 m from the ground is used as the prognostic meteorological parameter. Training procedures are based entirely on relatively short time series of power measurements. Results show that our approach has skills that are similar or better than those obtained using more standard methods when measured with mean absolute error.
topic wind power
power forecast
distribution mapping
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/12/1967
work_keys_str_mv AT marinomarrocu asimpleandeffectiveapproachforthepredictionofturbinepowerproductionfromwindspeedforecast
AT lucamassidda asimpleandeffectiveapproachforthepredictionofturbinepowerproductionfromwindspeedforecast
AT marinomarrocu simpleandeffectiveapproachforthepredictionofturbinepowerproductionfromwindspeedforecast
AT lucamassidda simpleandeffectiveapproachforthepredictionofturbinepowerproductionfromwindspeedforecast
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