Spatio-temporal trends in the hydroclimate of Turkey for the last decades based on two reanalysis datasets
We present a regional assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in several hydro-climate variables from 1979 to 2010 in Turkey, one of the countries of the eastern Mediterranean vulnerable to climate change, using the two reanalysis products of the ECMWF: ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land. The trend an...
Main Author: | |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016-09-01
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Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/3777/2016/hess-20-3777-2016.pdf |
Summary: | We present a regional assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in several
hydro-climate variables from 1979 to 2010 in Turkey, one of the countries of
the eastern Mediterranean vulnerable to climate change, using the two
reanalysis products of the ECMWF: ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land. The trend
analysis revealed that an average warming of 1.26 °C [0.8–1.8]
occurred in Turkey from 1979 to 2010, with high confidence intervals
(95–99 %, mostly). Geographically, the largest warming (up to
1.8 °C) occurred in the western coastal areas next to the Aegean Sea
and in the southeastern regions. The air temperature trends were generally
confirmed by the in situ data from about 100 weather stations around the
country, though in situ data indicated slightly higher trends ranging from 1
to 2.5°. With respect to the regional trends in hydrological
variables, ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land revealed quite different
pictures: the ERA-Interim dataset indicated that there have been significant
decreasing trends of precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff in
some parts of inner/southeastern Anatolia (a total decrease of up to 250 mm
in the upstream of the Euphrates, Kizilirmak and Seyhan basins), while
ERA-Interim/Land showed no or minor trends in the same areas. Based on the
extensive comparisons with precipitation and SWE gauge data, we can suggest
that the hydrological trends shown by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, which is
said to be a model improvement, are relatively closer to the observations.
From the hydrological trends revealed by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, we can
conclude that, despite the strong warming trends over Turkey from 1979 to
2010, there have been no widespread and strong hydrological trends for the
same period throughout the country. In this regard, we can suggest that the
impacts of global warming on the water cycle are not straightforward,
especially at the regional scale, and future climate simulations indicating
considerable reductions in precipitation along with the significant increases
in temperatures throughout the Mediterranean and the Middle East by the end
of the twenty-first century need to be dealt with cautiously. |
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ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |