An attempt to unify some population growth models from first principles

• Main Author: Fabiano L. Ribeiro
• Format: Article
• Language: Portuguese
• Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Física
• Series: Revista Brasileira de Ensino de Física
• Subjects: Crescimento Populacional; Sistemas Complexos; Modelagem Matemática
• Online Access: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1806-11172017000100411&lng=en&tlng=en

In this work, some phenomenological growth models based only on the population information (macroscopic level) are deduced in an intuitive way. These models, for instance Verhulst, Gompertz and Bertalanffy-Richards models, are introduced in such a way that all the parameters involved have a physical interpretation. A model based on the interaction (distance dependent) between the individuals (microscopic level) is also presented. This microscopic model have some phenomenological models as particular cases. In this approach, the Verhulst model represents the situation in which all the individuals interact in the same way, regardless of the distance between them (mean field approach). Other phenomenological models are retrieved from the microscopic model according to two quantities: i) the way that the interaction decays as a function the distance between two individuals and ii) the dimension of the spatial structure formed by the individuals of the population. This microscopic model allows understanding population growth by first principles, because it predicts that some phenomenological models can be seen as a consequence of interaction at individual level. The microscopic model discussed here paves the way to finding universal patterns that are common to all types of growth, even in systems of very different nature.