Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for non-pharmaceutical epidemic mitigation strategies that can be effective even if they are limited in duration. Here, the authors derive analytically optimal and near-optimal time-limited strategies for limiting the epidemic peak in the Susceptible-I...

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Main Authors: Dylan H. Morris, Fernando W. Rossine, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group 2021-04-01
Series:Communications Physics
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42005-021-00570-y
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spelling doaj-0b357ff47ccb47a6ade860a79c300dba2021-04-25T11:23:40ZengNature Publishing GroupCommunications Physics2399-36502021-04-01411810.1038/s42005-021-00570-yOptimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic controlDylan H. Morris0Fernando W. Rossine1Joshua B. Plotkin2Simon A. Levin3Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton UniversityDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton UniversityDepartment of Biology and Department of Mathematics, The University of PennsylvaniaDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton UniversityThe COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for non-pharmaceutical epidemic mitigation strategies that can be effective even if they are limited in duration. Here, the authors derive analytically optimal and near-optimal time-limited strategies for limiting the epidemic peak in the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model and show that, due to the sensitivity of such strategies to implementation errors, timely action is fundamental to non-pharmaceutical disease control.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42005-021-00570-y
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Dylan H. Morris
Fernando W. Rossine
Joshua B. Plotkin
Simon A. Levin
spellingShingle Dylan H. Morris
Fernando W. Rossine
Joshua B. Plotkin
Simon A. Levin
Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
Communications Physics
author_facet Dylan H. Morris
Fernando W. Rossine
Joshua B. Plotkin
Simon A. Levin
author_sort Dylan H. Morris
title Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
title_short Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
title_full Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
title_fullStr Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
title_full_unstemmed Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
title_sort optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
publisher Nature Publishing Group
series Communications Physics
issn 2399-3650
publishDate 2021-04-01
description The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for non-pharmaceutical epidemic mitigation strategies that can be effective even if they are limited in duration. Here, the authors derive analytically optimal and near-optimal time-limited strategies for limiting the epidemic peak in the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model and show that, due to the sensitivity of such strategies to implementation errors, timely action is fundamental to non-pharmaceutical disease control.
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s42005-021-00570-y
work_keys_str_mv AT dylanhmorris optimalnearoptimalandrobustepidemiccontrol
AT fernandowrossine optimalnearoptimalandrobustepidemiccontrol
AT joshuabplotkin optimalnearoptimalandrobustepidemiccontrol
AT simonalevin optimalnearoptimalandrobustepidemiccontrol
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