Predicting turning points in the South African economy
Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning...
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2003-06-01
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| Series: | South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://sajems.org/index.php/sajems/article/view/3315 |
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doaj-09bd6197f29345ffa9f69103dacc12f32020-11-25T01:05:14ZengAOSISSouth African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences1015-88122222-34362003-06-016228930310.4102/sajems.v6i2.3315895Predicting turning points in the South African economyElna Moolman0Department of Economics, University of PretoriaDespite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.https://sajems.org/index.php/sajems/article/view/3315 |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
Elna Moolman |
| spellingShingle |
Elna Moolman Predicting turning points in the South African economy South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences |
| author_facet |
Elna Moolman |
| author_sort |
Elna Moolman |
| title |
Predicting turning points in the South African economy |
| title_short |
Predicting turning points in the South African economy |
| title_full |
Predicting turning points in the South African economy |
| title_fullStr |
Predicting turning points in the South African economy |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting turning points in the South African economy |
| title_sort |
predicting turning points in the south african economy |
| publisher |
AOSIS |
| series |
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences |
| issn |
1015-8812 2222-3436 |
| publishDate |
2003-06-01 |
| description |
Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator. |
| url |
https://sajems.org/index.php/sajems/article/view/3315 |
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AT elnamoolman predictingturningpointsinthesouthafricaneconomy |
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