| Summary: | Objectives This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of three renal replacement therapy (RRT) modalities as well as proposed changes of scheduled policies in RRT composition in Guangzhou city.Methods From a payer perspective, we designed Markov model-based cost-effectiveness analyses to compare the cost-effectiveness of three RRT modalities and four different scheduled policies to RRT modalities in Guangzhou over three time horizons (5, 10 and 15 years). The current situation (scenario 1: haemodialysis (HD), 73%; peritoneal dialysis (PD), 14%; kidney transplantation (TX), 13%) was compared with three different scenarios: an increased proportion of incident RRT patients on PD (scenario 2: HD, 47%; PD, 40%; TX, 13%); on TX (scenario 3: HD, 52%; PD, 14%; TX, 34%); on both PD and TX (Scenario 4: HD, 26%; PD, 40%; TX, 34%).Results Over 5-year time horizon, HD was dominated by PD. At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$44 300, TX was cost-effective compared with PD with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$35 518 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The scenario 2 held a dominant position over the scenario 1, with a net saving of US$ 5.92 million and an additional gain of 6.24 QALYs. The scenarios 3 and 4 were cost-effective compared with scenario 1 at a WTP threshold of US$44 300. The above results were consistent across the three time horizons.Conclusions TX is the most cost-effective RRT modality, followed in order by PD and HD. The strategy with an increased proportion of incident patients on PD and TX is cost-effective compared with the current practice pattern at the given WTP threshold. The planning for RRT service delivery should incorporate efforts to increase the utilisation of PD and TX in China.
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