Mathematical Model of Nicholson’s Experiment

• Main Author: Sergey D. Glyzin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Yaroslavl State University 2017-06-01
• Series: Modelirovanie i Analiz Informacionnyh Sistem
• Subjects: differential-difference equations; asymptotic behaviour; stability; lyapunov exponents; insect population dynamics
• Online Access: https://www.mais-journal.ru/jour/article/view/525
• ISSN: 1818-1015; 2313-5417

Considered  is a mathematical model of insects  population dynamics,  and  an attempt is made  to explain  classical experimental results  of Nicholson with  its help.  In the  first section  of the paper  Nicholson’s experiment is described  and dynamic  equations  for its modeling are chosen.  A priori estimates  for model parameters can be made more precise by means of local analysis  of the  dynamical system,  that is carried  out in the second section.  For parameter values found there  the stability loss of the  problem  equilibrium  of the  leads to the  bifurcation of a stable  two-dimensional torus.   Numerical simulations  based  on the  estimates  from the  second section  allows to explain  the  classical Nicholson’s experiment, whose detailed  theoretical substantiation is given in the last section.  There for an atrractor of the  system  the  largest  Lyapunov  exponent is computed. The  nature of this  exponent change allows to additionally narrow  the area of model parameters search.  Justification of this experiment was made possible  only  due  to  the  combination of analytical and  numerical  methods  in studying  equations  of insects  population dynamics.   At the  same time,  the  analytical approach made  it possible to perform numerical  analysis  in a rather narrow  region of the  parameter space.  It is not  possible to get into this area,  based only on general considerations.