| Summary: | As the world’s largest developing country, China currently is undergoing rapid urbanization and motorization, which will result in far-reaching impacts on energy and the environment. According to estimates, energy use and carbon emissions in the transportation sector will comprise roughly 30% of total emissions by 2030. Since the late 1990s, transportation-related issues such as energy, consumption, and carbon emissions have become a policy focus in China. To date, most research and policies have centered on vehicle technologies that promote vehicle efficiency and reduced emissions. Limited research exists on the control of greenhouse gases through mode shifts in urban transportation—in particular, through the promotion of public transit. The purpose of this study is to establish a methodology to analyze carbon emissions from the urban transportation sector at the Chinese city level. By using Jinan, the capital of China’s Shandong Province, as an example, we have developed an analytical model to simulate energy consumption and carbon emissions based on the number of trips, the transportation mode split, and the trip distance. This model has enabled us to assess the impacts of the transportation mode split on energy consumption and carbon emissions. Furthermore, this paper reviews a set of methods for data collection, estimation, and processing for situations where statistical data are scarce in China. This paper also describes the simulation of three transportation system development scenarios. The results of this study illustrate that if no policy intervention is implemented for the transportation mode split (the business-as-usual (BAU) case), then emissions from Chinese urban transportation systems will quadruple by 2030. However, a dense, mixed land-use pattern, as well as transportation policies that encourage public transportation, would result in the elimination of 1.93 million tons of carbon emissions—approximately 50% of the BAU scenario emissions.
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