Evaluating meteorological climate model inputs to improve coastal hydrodynamic studies
This work compares meteorological results from different regional climate model (RCM) implementations in the Mediterranean area, with a focus on the northern Adriatic Sea. The need to use these datasets as atmospheric forcings (wind and atmospheric pressure fields) for coastal hydrodynamic models to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2011-08-01
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| Series: | Advances in Science and Research |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-sci-res.net/6/227/2011/asr-6-227-2011.pdf |
| Summary: | This work compares meteorological results from different regional climate
model (RCM) implementations in the Mediterranean area, with a focus on the
northern Adriatic Sea. The need to use these datasets as atmospheric
forcings (wind and atmospheric pressure fields) for coastal hydrodynamic
models to assess future changes in the coastal hydrodynamics, is the basis
of the presented analysis. It would allow the assessment of uncertainties
due to atmospheric forcings in providing coastal current, surge and wave
climate changes from future implementations of hydrodynamic models.
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Two regional climate models, with different spatial resolutions, downscaled
from two different global climate models (whose atmospheric components are,
respectively, ECHAM4 and ECHAM5), were considered. In particular, the RCM
delivered wind and atmospheric pressure fields were compared with
measurements at four stations along the Italian Adriatic coast. The analyses
were conducted using a past control period, 1960–1990, and the A1B IPCC
future scenario (2070–2100). The chosen scenario corresponds to a world of
very rapid economic and demographic growth that peaks in mid-century, with a
rapid introduction of new efficient technologies, which balance fossil and
non-fossil resources (IPCC, 2007). Consideration is given to the accuracy of
each model at reproducing the basic statistics and the trends. The role of
models' spatial resolution in reproducing global and local scale
meteorological processes is also discussed. The Adriatic Sea climate is
affected by the orography that produces a strengthening of north-eastern
katabatic winds like bora. Therefore, spatial model resolution, both for
orography and for a better resolution of coastline (Cavaleri et al., 2010),
is one of the important factors in providing more realistic wind forcings
for future hydrodynamic models implementations. However, also the
characteristics in RCM setup and parameterization can explain differences
between the datasets. The analysis from an ensemble of model implementation
would provide more robust indications on climatic wind and atmospheric
pressure variations. The scenario-control comparison shows a general
increase in the mean atmospheric pressure values while a decrease in mean
wind speed and in extreme wind events is seen, particularly for the datasets
with higher spatial resolution. |
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| ISSN: | 1992-0628 1992-0636 |