| Summary: | Abstract Background Previous studies on the persistence of child and adolescent mental healthcare do not consider the role of time-invariant individual characteristics. Estimating persistence of healthcare using standard linear models yields biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity and the autoregressive structure of the model. This study provides estimates of the persistence of child and adolescent mental healthcare taking these statistical issues into account. Methods We use registry data of more than 80,000 Dutch children and adolescents between 2000 and 2012 from the Psychiatric Case Registry Northern Netherlands (PCR-NN). In order to account for autocorrelation due to the presence of a lagged dependent variable and to distinguish between persistence caused by time-invariant individual characteristics and a direct care effect we use difference GMM-IV estimation. In further analyses we assess the robustness of our results to policy reforms, different definitions of care and diagnosis decomposition. Results All estimation results for the direct care effect (true state-dependence) show a positive coefficient smaller than unity with a main effect of 0.215 (p<0.01), which indicates that the process is stable. Persistence of care is found to be 0.065 (p<0.05) higher for females. Additionally, the majority of persistence of care appears to be associated with time-invariant characteristics. Further analyses indicate that (1) results are robust to different definitions of care and (2) persistence of care does not differ significantly across subgroups. Conclusions The results indicate that the majority of mental healthcare persistence for children and adolescents is due to time-invariant individuals characteristics. Additionally, we find that in the absence of further shocks a sudden increase of 10 care contacts in the present year is associated with an average of less than 3 additional care contacts at some point in the future. This result provides essential information about the necessity of budget increases for future years in the case of exogenous increases in healthcare use.
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