| Summary: | Abstract Background Predicting the patterns of range expansion of alien species is central to develop effective strategies for managing potential biological invasions. Here, we present a study on the potential distribution of the American cavity-nesting, Orthoptera-hunting and solitary wasp, Isodontia mexicana (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae), which was first detected as alien species in France in 1960 and now is present in many European countries. After having updated its current distribution, we estimated the environmental space (based on bioclimatic data and altitude) occupied by the species and subsequently predicted its environmental potential distribution under both present and future climatic conditions at global scale. Results The wasp lives in low-altitude areas of the Northern hemisphere with moderate temperatures and precipitation. The environmental space occupied in the invaded area is practically just a subset (42%) of that occupied in the native area, showing a process of environmental niche unfilling (i.e. the species only partially fills its environmental niche in the invaded range). Besides, I. mexicana could also live in other temperate areas, mainly in the Southern hemisphere, particularly close to the coasts. However, geographic (oceans) and/or climatic (tropical areas, mountain chains) barriers would prevent the species to reach these potential areas unless through human trade activity. The species could thus only reach, by active dispersion, the remaining invadable areas of Europe. Estimations for the future (2050 and 2070) predict an expansion through active dispersion towards North in the native range and towards North and East in the invaded range, but future conditions would not break down the current climatic barriers in the Southern hemisphere. Conclusions Isodontia mexicana has not shifted its environmental niche in the invaded area. It could still occupy some new areas by active dispersion, but confined to Europe. The conspicuous niche unfilling shown by this wasp species could reflect the likely single introduction in Europe just a few decades ago. Furthermore, results stay in line with other studies that found niche unfilling rather than niche expansion in insects.
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