| Summary: | Abstract Background There is limited evidence on the association between short-term changes in mineral and bone disorder parameters and survival in maintenance hemodialysis patients. Methods We investigated the association between changing patterns of phosphorus, calcium and intact parathyroid hormone levels and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism. Each parameter was divided into three categories (low [L], middle [M] and high [H]), and the changing patterns between two consecutive visits at 3-month intervals were categorized into nine groups (e.g., L-L and M-H). The middle category was defined as 4.0–7.0 mg/dL for phosphorous, 8.5–9.5 mg/dL for calcium and 200–500 pg/mL for intact parathyroid hormone. Adjusted incidence rates and rate ratios were analyzed by weighted Poisson regression models accounting for time-dependent exposures. Results For phosphorus, shifts from low/high to middle category (L-M/H-M) were associated with a lower mortality compared with the L-L and H–H groups, whereas shifts from middle to low/high category (M-L/M-H) were associated with a higher mortality compared with the M-M group. For calcium, shifts from low/middle to high category (L–H/M-H) were associated with a higher mortality compared with the L-L and M-M groups, whereas shifts from high to middle category (H-M) were associated with a lower mortality compared with the H–H group. For intact parathyroid hormone, shifts from low to middle category (L-M) were associated with a lower mortality compared with the L-L group. Conclusions Changes in the 3-month patterns of phosphorus and calcium toward the middle category were associated with lower mortality. Our study also suggests the importance of avoiding hypercalcemia.
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